Estimating and Simulating a Sird Model of Covid-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

47 Pages Posted: 8 May 2020

See all articles by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Charles M. Jones

Columbia Business School

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 2020

Abstract

We use data on deaths in New York City, various U.S. states, and various countries around the world to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baseline mortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 0.8% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.3% or 1.0%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.

Keywords: COVID-19, estimation, SIRD model

JEL Classification: C52, I10

Suggested Citation

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Jones, Charles M., Estimating and Simulating a Sird Model of Covid-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities (May 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14711, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3594346

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (Contact Author)

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Charles M. Jones

Columbia Business School ( email )

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