Lottery Preference and Anomalies

Abstract

We construct a lottery factor that aggregates the information of 16 commonly used lottery features. The lottery factor significantly improves the explanatory power of the four-factor q model in Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) and explains all but a few major anomaly returns. In assessing the implication of lottery preference on profitability of anomaly-based trading strategies, we find that anomaly returns are significantly stronger among stocks with strong lottery preference. Moreover, the anomaly spread portfolios are mainly driven by the short leg among stocks with stronger lottery preference. The effect of lottery feature on anomalies is not driven by financial distress and is related to investors being reluctant to short sell stocks with high lottery features due to the high upside risk.

Keywords: Lottery preference factor, anomalies, asset pricing

JEL Classification: G11, G12