Hospital Runs and Dynamic Capacity Management

Abstract

Pandemics can be devastating, especially if nonurgent patients rush for inpatient treatment. A common policy is to exclude these patients from hospitalization. We study hospital runs and optimal policies under full epidemiological dynamics. We explain why rushing can occur well before essential shortages (insufficient capacity without rushes). Although hospitalizing nonurgent patients is typically unnecessary, dynamic efficiency requires treating certain nonurgent patients long before and even during essential shortages. So exclusion is suboptimal. But simply allowing their hospitalization is not enough because equilibrium can feature excessive waiting. Resource nonstorability, urgency progression, and overlapping patient cohorts are important for these results.

Keywords: D10, I10 COVID-19, pandemics, hospital rushes, SIR

JEL Classification: D10, I10