Hospital Runs and Dynamic Capacity Management

47 Pages Posted: 8 May 2020 Last revised: 28 Dec 2020

See all articles by Wanyi Chen

Wanyi Chen

School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China

Chao He

Liaoning University

Date Written: December 28, 2020

Abstract

Pandemics can be devastating, especially if nonurgent patients rush for inpatient treatment. A common policy is to exclude these patients from hospitalization. We study hospital runs and optimal policies under full epidemiological dynamics. We explain why rushing can occur well before essential shortages (insufficient capacity without rushes). Although hospitalizing nonurgent patients is typically unnecessary, dynamic efficiency requires treating certain nonurgent patients long before and even during essential shortages. So exclusion is suboptimal. But simply allowing their hospitalization is not enough because equilibrium can feature excessive waiting. Resource nonstorability, urgency progression, and overlapping patient cohorts are important for these results.

Keywords: D10, I10 COVID-19, pandemics, hospital rushes, SIR

JEL Classification: D10, I10

Suggested Citation

Chen, Wanyi and He, Chao, Hospital Runs and Dynamic Capacity Management (December 28, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3596115 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596115

Wanyi Chen

School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China ( email )

Hefei, Anhui
China

Chao He (Contact Author)

Liaoning University ( email )

Shenyang, Liaoning
China

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