An Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 and its Effects on Indonesia’S Economy: A Dynamic Simulation Estimation

12 Pages Posted: 19 May 2020

See all articles by Lukas B. Sihombing

Lukas B. Sihombing

University of Indonesia (UI) - Faculty of Economic, University of Indonesia (UI) - Department of Civil Engineering

Len Malczynski

University of New Mexico - Robert O. Anderson Schools of Management

Jake Jacobson

Mindseye Computing LLC

Hari G. Soeparto

Ikatan Ahli Manajemen Proyek Indonesia (IAMPI)

Darma T. Saptodewo

Ikatan Ahli Manajemen Proyek Indonesia (IAMPI)

Date Written: May 9, 2020

Abstract

The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has spread all over the world, including Indonesia, and as the rate increases each day, the death toll also rise. However, the effects of the outbreak on the economy has not been calculated especially in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the disease on Indonesia’s economy. Hence, A System Dynamics method was used, and the results showed there are four scenarios which are worst, bad, moderate, and desirable. Furthermore, in order to ensure economic growth of 3.5%, a vaccine needs to be discovered by August 2020, recovery period of 7 days, ventilator efficiency of 70%, hospital bed capacity of 51,161, and social distancing needs to be practiced. Therefore, these results can be useful for policy makers to handle the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, Indonesia’s economy, System Dynamics

JEL Classification: A11, I15

Suggested Citation

Sihombing, Lukas B. and Malczynski, Len and Jacobson, Jake and Soeparto, Hari G. and Saptodewo, Darma T., An Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 and its Effects on Indonesia’S Economy: A Dynamic Simulation Estimation (May 9, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3597004 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3597004

Lukas B. Sihombing (Contact Author)

University of Indonesia (UI) - Faculty of Economic, University of Indonesia (UI) - Department of Civil Engineering ( email )

Kampus Baru
Depok, West Java 16424
Indonesia

Len Malczynski

University of New Mexico - Robert O. Anderson Schools of Management

Albuquerque, NM 87131
United States

Jake Jacobson

Mindseye Computing LLC

United States

Hari G. Soeparto

Ikatan Ahli Manajemen Proyek Indonesia (IAMPI)

Indonesia

Darma T. Saptodewo

Ikatan Ahli Manajemen Proyek Indonesia (IAMPI)

Indonesia

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