Does Monetary Policy Impact Sovereign Credit Risk Comovement?

Abstract

This paper shows that FED policy announcements are accompanied with a significant increase in international co-movement in the sovereign CDS market. The effect is strongest for emerg- ing markets, when the FED relaxes unconventional monetary policies, and for countries that are open to the trading of goods and flows, even with floating exchange rates. The announce- ments also affect closed economies whose currencies are pegged to the dollar. The evidence is consistent with recent theories of a global financial cycle and the pricing of a FED put. In contrast, ECB announcements hardly affect co-movement, even in the Eurozone.

Keywords: Sovereign credit risk, Monetary policy, Quantitative easing, Mundellian trilemma, Comovement

JEL Classification: E58, G12, G15