Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing

28 Pages Posted: 14 May 2020

See all articles by Steve Cicala

Steve Cicala

University of Chicago

Stephen P. Holland

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Greensboro - Bryan School of Business & Economics; University of California, Berkeley - Energy Institute

Erin T. Mansur

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Nicholas Z. Muller

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Andrew Yates

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics

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Date Written: May 11, 2020

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in spring of 2020. This paper examines the impact that these actions had on emissions and expected health effects through reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption. Using daily cell phone mobility data for each U.S. county, we find that vehicle travel dropped about 40% by mid-April across the nation. States that imposed stay-at-home policies before March 28 decreased travel slightly more than other states, but travel in all states decreased significantly. Using data on hourly electricity consumption by electricity region (e.g., balancing authority), we find that electricity consumption fell about six percent on average by mid-April with substantial heterogeneity. Given these decreases in travel and electricity use, we estimate the county-level expected improvements in air quality, and therefore expected declines in mortality. Overall, we estimate that, for a month of social distancing, the expected premature deaths due to air pollution from personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption declined by approximately 360 deaths, or about 25% of the baseline 1500 deaths. In addition, we estimate that CO2 emissions from these sources fell by 46 million metric tons (a reduction of approximately 19%) over the same time frame.

Suggested Citation

Cicala, Steve and Holland, Stephen P. and Mansur, Erin T. and Muller, Nicholas Z. and Yates, Andrew, Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing (May 11, 2020). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2020-61, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3598353 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3598353

Steve Cicala (Contact Author)

University of Chicago ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

HOME PAGE: http://home.uchicago.edu/~scicala

Stephen P. Holland

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Greensboro - Bryan School of Business & Economics ( email )

401 Bryan Building
Greensboro, NC 27402-6179
United States

University of California, Berkeley - Energy Institute ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Erin T. Mansur

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States
603 646 2398 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Nicholas Z. Muller

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

1773 Huntington Tpke.
New Haven, CT 06511
United States
203-386-9314 (Phone)

Andrew Yates

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics ( email )

Chapel Hill, NC 27599
United States

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