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Measuring the Contribution of Built-Settlement Data to Global Population Mapping

21 Pages Posted: 20 May 2020 Publication Status: Published

See all articles by Jeremiah J. Nieves

Jeremiah J. Nieves

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Maksym Bondarenko

University of Southampton - WorldPop

David Kerr

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Nikolas Ves

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Greg Yetman

Columbia University - Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

Parmanand Sinha

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Donna J. Clarke

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Alessandro Sorichetta

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Forrest Stevens

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Andrea E. Gaughan

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Andrew J. Tatem

University of Southampton - WorldPop

Abstract

Top-down population modelling has gained applied prominence in public health, planning, and sustainability applications at the global scale. These top-down population modelling methods often rely on remote-sensing (RS) derived representation of the built-environment and settlements as key predictive covariates. While these RS-derived data, which are global in extent, have become more advanced and more available, gaps in spatial and temporal coverage remain. Here we have modelled built-settlement extents between 2000 and 2012 and demonstrate the applied utility and information provided by these annually modelled data for the application of annually modelling population across 172 countries. We demonstrate that the modelled built-settlement data are consistently the 2nd most important covariate in predicting population density, behind annual lights at night, across the globe and across the study period. Further, we demonstrate that this modelled built-settlement data often provides more information than current annually available RS-derived data and last observed built-settlement extents.

Keywords: urban, Population, growth model, built, settlement, Machine Learning, Meta-analysis

Suggested Citation

Nieves, Jeremiah J. and Bondarenko, Maksym and Kerr, David and Ves, Nikolas and Yetman, Greg and Sinha, Parmanand and Clarke, Donna J. and Sorichetta, Alessandro and Stevens, Forrest and Gaughan, Andrea E. and Tatem, Andrew J., Measuring the Contribution of Built-Settlement Data to Global Population Mapping. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3599775 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3599775

Jeremiah J. Nieves (Contact Author)

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

Maksym Bondarenko

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

David Kerr

University of Southampton - WorldPop

United Kingdom

Nikolas Ves

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

Greg Yetman

Columbia University - Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) ( email )

New York, NY 10964
United States

Parmanand Sinha

University of Southampton - WorldPop

United Kingdom

Donna J. Clarke

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

Alessandro Sorichetta

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

Forrest Stevens

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

Andrea E. Gaughan

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

Andrew J. Tatem

University of Southampton - WorldPop ( email )

United Kingdom

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