The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters

Flyvbjerg, Bent

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3600070

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The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2020, 'The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters,' Environmental Science and Policy, vol. 114, December, pp. 614-618, doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013.

17 Pages Posted: 14 May 2020 Last revised: 22 Mar 2023

See all articles by Bent Flyvbjerg

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School; IT University of Copenhagen; St Anne's College, University of Oxford

Date Written: May 13, 2020

Abstract

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than COVID-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?

Note:
Funding Information: None to declare.

Conflict of Interests: None to declare.

Keywords: Regression to the tail; risk; fat-tailed risk; COVID-19; pandemics; climate crisis; risk mitigation; building back better

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Flyvbjerg, Bent, The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters (May 13, 2020). Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2020, 'The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters,' Environmental Science and Policy, vol. 114, December, pp. 614-618, doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3600070 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3600070