The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters
Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2020, 'The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters,' Environmental Science and Policy, online, October, 2020.
17 Pages Posted: 14 May 2020 Last revised: 30 Dec 2020
Date Written: May 13, 2020
Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than COVID-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?
Keywords: Regression to the tail; risk; fat-tailed risk; COVID-19; pandemics; climate crisis; risk mitigation; building back better
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