Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics

33 Pages Posted: 22 May 2020

See all articles by John Knowles

John Knowles

Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics

Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 2019

Abstract

Female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect postdisruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the postwar rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.

Suggested Citation

Knowles, John and Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics (November 2019). International Economic Review, Vol. 60, Issue 4, pp. 1505-1537, 2019, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3602088 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12395

John Knowles (Contact Author)

Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ( email )

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