Download This PaperFertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics
33 Pages Posted: 22 May 2020
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Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics
FRB St. Louis Working Paper No. 2015-7
Number of pages: 59
Posted: 19 Aug 2015
Last Revised: 21 Feb 2019
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Date Written: November 2019
Abstract
Female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect postdisruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the postwar rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Knowles, John and Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics (November 2019). International Economic Review, Vol. 60, Issue 4, pp. 1505-1537, 2019, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3602088 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12395
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