Accounting for Global Covid-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020

68 Pages Posted: 18 May 2020 Last revised: 23 Jun 2021

See all articles by Yothin Jinjarak

Yothin Jinjarak

Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance

Rashad Ahmed

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Sameer Nair-Desai

University of Southern California

Weining Xin

Department of Economics

Joshua Aizenman

University of Southern California - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: May 2020

Abstract

Key factors in modeling a pandemic and guiding policy-making include mortality rates associated with infections; the ability of government policies, medical systems, and society to adapt to the changing dynamics of a pandemic; and institutional and demographic characteristics affecting citizens’ perceptions and behavioral responses to stringent policies. This paper traces the cross-country associations between COVID-19 mortality, policy interventions aimed at limiting social contact, and their interactions with institutional and demographic characteristics. We document that, with a lag, more stringent pandemic policies were associated with lower mortality growth rates. The association between stricter pandemic policies and lower future mortality growth is more pronounced in countries with a greater proportion of the elderly population and urban population, greater democratic freedoms, and larger international travel flows. Countries with greater policy stringency in place prior to the first death realized lower peak mortality rates and exhibited lower durations to the first mortality peak. In contrast, countries with higher initial mobility saw higher peak mortality rates in the first phase of the pandemic, and countries with a larger elderly population, a greater share of employees in vulnerable occupations, and a higher level of democracy took longer to reach their peak mortalities. Our results suggest that policy interventions are effective at slowing the geometric pattern of mortality growth, reducing the peak mortality, and shortening the duration to the first peak. We also shed light on the importance of institutional and demographic characteristics in guiding policy-making for future waves of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

Jinjarak, Yothin and Ahmed, Rashad and Nair-Desai, Sameer and Xin, Weining and Aizenman, Joshua, Accounting for Global Covid-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020 (May 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27185, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3603815

Yothin Jinjarak (Contact Author)

Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance ( email )

P.O. Box 600
Wellington 6001
New Zealand

Rashad Ahmed

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Sameer Nair-Desai

University of Southern California

Weining Xin

Department of Economics

3620 S Vermont Ave, KAP300
Los Angeles, CA California 90089
United States

Joshua Aizenman

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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