The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics
23 Pages Posted: 20 May 2020
Date Written: 2020
Abstract
Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological frame-work with a dynamic model of individual location choice. The model predicts that flows of people across space obey a structural gravity equation. By means of an application to data from Great Britain we show that our structural-gravity framework: provides a rationale for quarantines; offers a clear mapping from observed geography to the spread of a disease; and makes it possible to evaluate the welfare impact of (expected and unexpected) mobility restrictions in the face of a deadly epidemic.
Keywords: epidemics, Covid-19, gravity, regional mobility
JEL Classification: E650, F140, F170, J610, R230
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