The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics

23 Pages Posted: 20 May 2020

See all articles by Alejandro Cuñat

Alejandro Cuñat

University of Vienna

Robert Zymek

University of Edinburgh - School of Economics

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological frame-work with a dynamic model of individual location choice. The model predicts that flows of people across space obey a structural gravity equation. By means of an application to data from Great Britain we show that our structural-gravity framework: provides a rationale for quarantines; offers a clear mapping from observed geography to the spread of a disease; and makes it possible to evaluate the welfare impact of (expected and unexpected) mobility restrictions in the face of a deadly epidemic.

Keywords: epidemics, Covid-19, gravity, regional mobility

JEL Classification: E650, F140, F170, J610, R230

Suggested Citation

Cuñat, Alejandro and Zymek, Robert, The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8295, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3603830 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3603830

Alejandro Cuñat (Contact Author)

University of Vienna ( email )

Bruenner Strasse 72
Vienna, Vienna 1090
Austria

Robert Zymek

University of Edinburgh - School of Economics ( email )

31 Buccleuch Place
Edinburgh, EH8 9JT
United Kingdom

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