Policy Priority Inference: A Computational Method for the Analysis of Sustainable Development

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See all articles by Omar A Guerrero

Omar A Guerrero

Alan Turing Institute - Alan Turing Institute; University College London - Department of Economics

Gonzalo Castañeda Ramos

University of the Americas, Puebla - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 18, 2020

Abstract

We develop a computational framework to support the planning and evaluation of development strategies towards the 2030 Agenda. The methodology takes into account the complexities of the political economy underpinning the policymaking process, for example, the multidimensionality of development, the interlinkages between these dimensions, the inefficiencies of implementing policy interventions, as well as the institutional factors that promote or disencourage these inefficiencies. The framework is scalable and usable with publicly-available development-indicator data, and it can be further refined as more data becomes available, for example, on public expenditure. We demonstrate its usage through an application for the Mexican federal government. For this, we infer historical policy priorities, i.e. non-observable allocations of transformative resources that generate changes in development indicators. We also show how to use the tool to assess the feasibility of development goals, to measure policy coherence, and to identify accelerators. Overall, the tool provides a systemic framework that allows policymakers and other stakeholders to embrace a complexity view to tackle the challenges of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Suggested Citation

Guerrero, Omar A and Castañeda Ramos, Gonzalo, Policy Priority Inference: A Computational Method for the Analysis of Sustainable Development (May 18, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=

Omar A Guerrero (Contact Author)

Alan Turing Institute - Alan Turing Institute ( email )

96 Euston Road
London, NW1 2DB
United Kingdom

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Drayton House, 30 Gordon Street
30 Gordon Street
London, WC1H 0AX
United Kingdom

Gonzalo Castañeda Ramos

University of the Americas, Puebla - Department of Economics ( email )

Sta. Catarina Martir
Cholula, Puebla 72820 72810
Mexico

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