Crisis Signaling: How Italy's Coronavirus Lockdown Affected Incumbent Support in Other European Countries

32 Pages Posted: 21 May 2020 Last revised: 30 Sep 2020

See all articles by Catherine E. De Vries

Catherine E. De Vries

Bocconi University - DONDENA - Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics

Bert N. Bakker

University of Amsterdam - Department of Communication Science

Sara Hobolt

London School of Economics; London School of Economics

Kevin Arceneaux

Temple University - Department of Political Science

Date Written: May 20, 2020

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unparalleled global crisis. Yet, despite the grave adversity faced by citizens, incumbents around the world experienced a boost in popularity during the onset of the outbreak. In this study, we examine how the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in one country has affected incumbent support in other countries. Specifically, we leverage the fact that the first country-wide lockdown on European soil, in Italy on March 9, 2020, happened during the fieldwork of online surveys conducted in four other European countries, France, Germany, Poland and Spain. This allows us to examine how an event abroad that alerted citizens to an imminent crisis – prior to a similar domestic government response – nonetheless influenced incumbent support. Our results suggest a crisis signal effect of Italy's COVID-19 lockdown, as support for the incumbent increased in other European countries after the Italian lockdown. Importantly, these findings suggest that incumbents can benefit from a crisis, even when their own performance in response to the crisis is not yet fully clear. As such our findings cast some doubt on the assumption underlying classic models of accountability that ordinary citizens can disentangle performance signals from exogenous shocks, i.e. events largely outside of the control of incumbents.

Keywords: COVID-19, Incumbent Support, Lockdown

Suggested Citation

De Vries, Catherine E. and Bakker, Bert N. and Hobolt, Sara and Arceneaux, Kevin, Crisis Signaling: How Italy's Coronavirus Lockdown Affected Incumbent Support in Other European Countries (May 20, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3606149 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3606149

Catherine E. De Vries (Contact Author)

Bocconi University - DONDENA - Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

Bert N. Bakker

University of Amsterdam - Department of Communication Science ( email )

Spui 21
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

Sara Hobolt

London School of Economics ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

London School of Economics ( email )

United Kingdom

Kevin Arceneaux

Temple University - Department of Political Science ( email )

1115 West Berks Street
Gladfelter Hall 4th Floor
Philadelphia, PA 19122
United States

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