Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S.

Haixi Li & Xuguang Simon Sheng (2020): Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S., Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1852163

9 Pages Posted: 21 May 2020 Last revised: 31 Dec 2020

Date Written: May 20, 2020

Abstract

The COVID-induced recession began in March 2020 for the United States. We identify this turning point by applying a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to a real-time index of economic activity. Supporting evidence is also found from macroeconomic data releases and stock markets.

Keywords: Big Data, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Turning Points

JEL Classification: E32

Suggested Citation

Li, Haixi and Sheng, Xuguang Simon, Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S. (May 20, 2020). Haixi Li & Xuguang Simon Sheng (2020): Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S., Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1852163, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3606825 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3606825

Haixi Li

Freddie Mac ( email )

8200 Jones Branch Road
McLean, VA 22101
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.freddiemac.com/

Xuguang Simon Sheng (Contact Author)

American University ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20016-8029
United States

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