The Impact of COVID-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Abstract

This paper seeks to assess the potential longer-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on those who survive. We propose a simple model for accelerated deaths that draws on the observation that many of those who die from COVID-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. The model predicts that, in the absence of additional secondary effects, the impact on the life expectancy of survivors (the anti-selection effect) will be very small, and that the degree of impact depends on the average years of life lost by those who die from COVID-19. The philosophy underpinning the model is supported by reference to both all-cause mortality by age and all-cause mortality by deprivation group. In combination, these support a proportionality link between COVID-19 mortality and individual frailty or death rate. The model predicts potentially low mortality in 2021 (healthy survivors), and we find evidence for a similar effect in mortality from respiratory diseases over the period 2013-15.


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Note: Funding: Funding information – There was no research grant to fund this paper

Declaration of Interest – Our interests are purely academic

Keywords: COVID-19, all-cause mortality, frailty, co-morbidities, mortality deprivation, accelerated deaths model

JEL Classification: J11