Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 under Different Reopening Strategies

Liu, Meng, Thomadsen, Raphael, and Yao, Song. Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 under different reopening strategies. Sci Rep 10, 20367 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77292-8

17 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2020 Last revised: 23 Nov 2020

See all articles by Meng Liu

Meng Liu

Washington University in St. Louis

Raphael Thomadsen

Olin School - Washington University in St. Louis

Song Yao

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School

Date Written: October 28, 2020

Abstract

We combine COVID-19 case data with mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the United States. In contrast to a standard SIR model, we find that the incidence of COVID-19 spread is concave in the number of contagious individuals, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. This concave shape has a significant impact on forecasted COVID-19 cases. In particular, our model forecasts that the number of COVID cases would only have an exponential growth for a brief period at the beginning of the contagion event or right after a reopening, but would quickly settle into a prolonged period of time with stable, slightly declining levels of disease spread. This pattern is consistent with observed levels of COVID-19 cases in the US, but inconsistent with standard SIR modeling. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19.

Note: Funding: We hereby declare that none of the authors received external funding for this manuscript.

Declaration of Interest: None of the authors has any competing interest in developing this study.

Keywords: COVID-19, SIR Models, Social Distancing, Reopening Economy

Suggested Citation

Liu, Meng and Thomadsen, Raphael and Yao, Song, Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 under Different Reopening Strategies (October 28, 2020). Liu, Meng, Thomadsen, Raphael, and Yao, Song. Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 under different reopening strategies. Sci Rep 10, 20367 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77292-8, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3607977 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3607977

Meng Liu

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Raphael Thomadsen

Olin School - Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

Song Yao (Contact Author)

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.songyao.org

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