SARS-CoV-2 May Be Primarily Transmitted via Aerosols by a Minority of the Infected With Significant Lung Involvement

Abstract

After the initial reluctance to recognise the aerosol transmission route as being of any significant importance in COVID-19, the scientific community seems to have settled upon the idea that it has probably been important in certain indoor superspreader events. This paper puts forward additional lines of evidence suggesting that the aerosol route is not just indispensable for explaining such events but may well be the dominant transmission route of the disease. We also turn on its head the main objection to the aerosol route’s importance, namely, that it would imply much larger spread than what has so far been observed. Building on recent experimental studies on influenza and evidence on COVID-19, we discuss evidence that COVID-19 may only or mostly be spread by the minority of infected with significant lung involvement, who exhale enough infectious aerosol.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2

JEL Classification: J1