J M Keynes’s Contribution to Solving the Certainty Effect Problem: How Some Philosophers Overlooked Keynes’s Conventional Coefficient of Weight and Risk, C

6 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2020

See all articles by Michael Emmett Brady

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: May 24, 2020

Abstract

J M Keynes solved the problems of the certainty, reflection, translation, and preference reversal effects long before these effects were specified in the post world war II literature by psychologists. Keynes recognized in chapter 26 of the A Treatise on Probability (1921; p.313) that all of these effects were a result of non linear probability preferences on the part of the decision maker.

An understanding of Keynes’s contribution would have helped philosophers, such as I. Levi and B. Weatherson, to deal with this problem.

Keywords: certainty effect, imprecise probability, non linear probability preferences, Keynes, interval valued probability

JEL Classification: B12, B14, B16, B18, B20

Suggested Citation

Brady, Michael Emmett, J M Keynes’s Contribution to Solving the Certainty Effect Problem: How Some Philosophers Overlooked Keynes’s Conventional Coefficient of Weight and Risk, C (May 24, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3609066 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3609066

Michael Emmett Brady (Contact Author)

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

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