Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security

39 Pages Posted: 26 May 2020 Last revised: 8 Nov 2021

See all articles by Jonathan Vu

Jonathan Vu

Warren Alpert Medical School

Benjamin Kaplan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Shomesh Chaudhuri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Monique K Mansoura

The MITRE Corporation

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Laboratory for Financial Engineering; Santa Fe Institute

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 2020

Abstract

Recent outbreaks of infectious pathogens such as Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19 have underscored the need for the dependable availability of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). The cost and risk of R&D programs and uniquely unpredictable demand for EID vaccines have discouraged vaccine developers, and government and nonprofit agencies have been unable to provide timely or sufficient incentives for their development and sustained supply. We analyze the economic returns of a portfolio of EID vaccine assets, and find that under realistic financing assumptions, the expected returns are significantly negative, implying that the private sector is unlikely to address this need without public-sector intervention. We have sized the financing deficit for this portfolio and analyze several potential solutions, including price increases, enhanced public-private partnerships, and subscription models through which individuals would pay annual fees to obtain access to a portfolio of vaccines in the event of an outbreak.

Suggested Citation

Vu, Jonathan and Kaplan, Benjamin and Chaudhuri, Shomesh and Mansoura, Monique K and Lo, Andrew W., Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security (May 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27212, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3609664

Jonathan Vu (Contact Author)

Warren Alpert Medical School ( email )

Providence, RI 02912
United States

Benjamin Kaplan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

100 Main Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

Shomesh Chaudhuri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

Monique K Mansoura

The MITRE Corporation ( email )

7515 Colshire Blvd.
McLean, VA 22102
United States

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Laboratory for Financial Engineering ( email )

100 Main Street
E62-618
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-0920 (Phone)
781 891-9783 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://web.mit.edu/alo/www

Santa Fe Institute

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Santa Fe, NM 87501
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