Causality and Dependence of COVID-19 Variables from Our World in Data

40 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last revised: 20 Jul 2020

See all articles by Gour Gobinda Goswami

Gour Gobinda Goswami

North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh; North South University

Dr. Muhammad Nurunnabi

affiliation not provided to SSRN

K H Habibur Rahman

North South University - Department of Economics

Khaled Md. Shafiullah

North South University - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 26, 2020

Abstract

The existing literature on COVID-19 has been dominated by medical sciences as well as epidemiological studies related to different public health reasons or disease related issues. Using the data set of 8 variables of Roser et al. (2020) from Our World in Data we have tested several propositions from conventional wisdom by using Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation, Panel Granger Causality test and Multivariate Bayesian VAR on 209 countries for 143 daily data during COVID19 outbreak in 2020 (31 December 2019-21 May 2020) in an unbalanced panel framework. It has been found that only a small fraction of new confirmed cases are being explained by new test conducted. Only a small fraction of new deaths due to COVID-19 is being explained by new confirmed cases. Stringency index neither contains contagion nor pacifies death rate or mortality. Even though bivariate analysis reveals some support to ‘more test more death hypothesis’ it has become weaker when we switch over to multivariate analysis. Urgent invention of a suitable vaccine is the only viable solution for fighting against this pandemic and save the humanity from this calamity.

Note: Funding: The paper is fully self-financed. We have not received any funding from any agency.

Declaration of Interest: We also declare that there is no conflict of interest from the author or co-author with any person or institution regarding this paper.

Keywords: COVID-19, Corona Virus; Our World in Data; Granger Causality; Bayesian VAR; Dependence; Impulse Response Function; Variance Decomposition

JEL Classification: I1

Suggested Citation

Goswami, Gour Gobinda and Nurunnabi, Dr. Muhammad and Rahman, K H Habibur and Shafiullah, Khaled Md., Causality and Dependence of COVID-19 Variables from Our World in Data (May 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3610756 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3610756

Gour Gobinda Goswami (Contact Author)

North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh ( email )

Plot 15, Block B, Bashundhara
Dhaka, 1229
Bangladesh
88255668200 (Phone)
880255668202 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.northsouth.edu/faculty-members/sbe/economics/grg.html

North South University ( email )

Plot 15, Block B, Bashundhara
North South University
Dhaka, 1229
Bangladesh
88255668200 (Phone)
1229 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.northsouth.edu/faculty-members/sbe/economics/grg.html

Dr. Muhammad Nurunnabi

affiliation not provided to SSRN

K H Habibur Rahman

North South University - Department of Economics ( email )

Dhaka 1213
India

Khaled Md. Shafiullah

North South University - Department of Economics ( email )

Dhaka 1213
India

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