Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility

Abstract

Using a panel of international government bond data, I construct fixed income portfolios that match the duration of the dividend strips of the corresponding local aggregate stock market index. I find that these bond portfolios have performed as well as --- if not better than --- their stock counterparts in the past half century while exhibiting similar (or even higher) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles (bubbles). I present several potential explanations, and discuss further the implications for macroeconomics, monetary economics, asset pricing, and corporate finance.

Keywords: Stock Market Performance, Excess Volatility, Duration, Dividend Risk Premium, COVID-19