The Main Result of Keynes’s Evidential Weight of the Argument Analysis, in Chapter 6 of the A Treatise on Probability, Is That V=V(a/h) =V(a/h1, h2, h3, h4……hn, hn+1….) While the Main Result of Chapter 26 Is That V(a/h)=w, 0≤w≤1, Where w=K/[K+I] and 1-w=I/[K+I]. No Economist or Philosopher in the 20th or 21st Century Was Able to Obtain Keynes’s Final Results by Combining Them
16 Pages Posted: 23 Jun 2020 Last revised: 22 Jul 2020
Date Written: May 28, 2020
The misbelief that Keynes's concept of the evidential weight of the evidence, V=V(a/h), in chapter 6 of the A Treatise on Probability, represented a measure of the absolute amount of relevant evidence, came about due to the failure of all philosophers and economists in the 20th and 21st centuries, who had written on Keynes’s concept of ’weight’, with the exceptions of F Y Edgeworth, B Russell, and C D Broad, to take seriously Keynes’s footnote 1 on page 76 to chapter 26 of the A treatise on Probability, where Keynes stated that he would discuss how to integrate weight into a discussion of “…the application of probability to practice.”
The most severe errors were originally introduced by I J Good in 1950 and appeared in all of his work on Keynes after that. These errors were picked up by economists and made the foundation of their assessments of Keynes’s work starting in 1990 with a paper by Runde. It is quite impossible to add, subtract, divide, and multiply logical relations. This obvious fact has gone unrecognized in the literature.
Keywords: weight of the argument, the completeness of the relevant evidence, Good, Kyburg, Levi, Runde, w, V
JEL Classification: B10, B12, B14, B16, B18, B20
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation