Goods Exports and Soft Export Indicators: Is a Disconnect Under Way?

20 Pages Posted: 28 May 2020

Date Written: March 18, 2020

Abstract

We find evidence of a gradual weakening of the correlation between the new export orders component of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and real goods export dynamics in the four major euro-area countries since 2012. In Italy this disconnect has been particularly strong over the last few quarters and concerns other soft export indicators as well. The decline in the information content of firms’ survey responses has gone hand in hand with several economic factors common to all four countries, such as a significant rise in economic uncertainty and the growing role of infra-group transactions within multinational enterprises.

Keywords: national accounts, goods exports, soft indicators

JEL Classification: F00, F19

Suggested Citation

Giordano, Claire, Goods Exports and Soft Export Indicators: Is a Disconnect Under Way? (March 18, 2020). Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 553, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3612747 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612747

Claire Giordano (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

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