Surviving COVID-19: Recovery Curves of Mall Traffic in China

20 Pages Posted: 29 May 2020 Last revised: 12 Jun 2020

See all articles by Cheng He

Cheng He

Wisconsin School of Business

Tong Wang

University of Iowa

Xiaopeng Luo

Scishang Data Technology

Zhenzhi Luo

Scishang Data Technology

Jiayi Guan

Scishang Data Technology

Haojun Gao

Scishang Data Technology

Keyan Zhu

Scishang Data Technology

lu feng

Scishang Data Technology

Yuehao Xu

Scishang Data Technology

Yuan Cheng

Tsinghua University - School of Economics & Management

Yu Jeffrey Hu

Georgia Institute of Technology - Scheller College of Business

Date Written: May 28, 2020

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused huge disruptions to the world economy. As a number of countries make progress in containing this outbreak, some of them have started to reopen their economy. We study the curves of recovery after reopening the economy, using a unique real-time dataset of daily customer traffic of 463 malls from 88 cities in China. Our results demonstrate that 9 weeks after reopening the economy, mall traffic has recovered to 64.0% of its level before this outbreak. In addition, the progress of containing this outbreak, such as reporting zero new local cases and clearing all existing cases, could significantly boost the recovery of mall traffic. Furthermore, We find that the recovery follows different curves across different cities, and this heterogeneity can be explained by pandemic situations, city tiers and city characteristics such as population, GDP, industrial structure, etc. More specifically, faster recovery speeds are observed in cities with better pandemic situations, lower city tiers, smaller migrant population, lower proportion of tertiary industry, higher proportion of secondary industry and higher GDP per capita.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Economic Recovery; Mall Traffic; Event study

Suggested Citation

He, Cheng and Wang, Tong and Luo, Xiaopeng and Luo, Zhenzhi and Guan, Jiayi and Gao, Haojun and Zhu, Keyan and feng, lu and Xu, Yuehao and Cheng, Yuan and Hu, Yu Jeffrey, Surviving COVID-19: Recovery Curves of Mall Traffic in China (May 28, 2020). Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Research Paper No. 3613294, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3613294 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3613294

Cheng He

Wisconsin School of Business ( email )

975 University Avenue
Madison, WI 53706
United States

Tong Wang

University of Iowa ( email )

341 Schaeffer Hall
Iowa City, IA 52242-1097
United States

Xiaopeng Luo

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Zhenzhi Luo

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Jiayi Guan

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Haojun Gao

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Keyan Zhu

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Lu Feng

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Yuehao Xu

Scishang Data Technology ( email )

China

Yuan Cheng

Tsinghua University - School of Economics & Management ( email )

Beijing, 100084
China

Yu Jeffrey Hu (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology - Scheller College of Business ( email )

800 West Peachtree St.
Atlanta, GA 30308
United States

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