The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy

34 Pages Posted: 29 May 2020 Last revised: 24 Jul 2020

See all articles by Elena Carletti

Elena Carletti

Bocconi University - Department of Finance; European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS)

Tommaso Oliviero

CefES; MoFiR; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Marco Pagano

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF); Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF); Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Loriana Pelizzon

Goethe University Frankfurt - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE; Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia

Marti G. Subrahmanyam

New York University (NYU) - Leonard N. Stern School of Business; NYU Shanghai

Date Written: July 20, 2020

Abstract

We forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown, using a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms. A 3-month lockdown entails an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP and results in financial distress for 17% of the sample firms, employing 8.8% of the sample employees. Distress is more frequent for small and medium-sized enterprises, for firms with high pre-COVID-19 leverage, and those belonging to the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors. Listed companies are less likely to enter distress, while there is no clear correlation between distress rates and family firm ownership.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemics, losses, distress, equity, recapitalization

JEL Classification: G01, G32, G33

Suggested Citation

Carletti, Elena and Oliviero, Tommaso and Pagano, Marco and Pelizzon, Loriana and Subrahmanyam, Marti G., The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy (July 20, 2020). NYU Stern School of Business, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3613343 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3613343

Elena Carletti

Bocconi University - Department of Finance ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milano, MI 20136
Italy

European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) ( email )

Villa La Fonte, via delle Fontanelle 18
50016 San Domenico di Fiesole
Florence, Florence 50014
Italy

Tommaso Oliviero

CefES ( email )

U6 Building
Viale Piero e Alberto Pirelli, 22
Milano, 20126
Italy

MoFiR ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
Ancona, 60100
Italy

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

Marco Pagano (Contact Author)

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)

Via Sallustiana, 62
Rome, 00187
Italy

Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)

Box 55665
Grevgatan 34, 2nd floor
Stockholm, SE-102 15
Sweden

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o the Royal Academies of Belgium
Rue Ducale 1 Hertogsstraat
1000 Brussels
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http:/www.ecgi.org

Loriana Pelizzon

Goethe University Frankfurt - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3
Frankfurt am Main, D-60323
Germany

Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE ( email )

Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.safe-frankfurt.de

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Marti G. Subrahmanyam

New York University (NYU) - Leonard N. Stern School of Business ( email )

44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-160
New York, NY NY 10012
United States

NYU Shanghai ( email )

1555 Century Ave
Shanghai, 200122
China

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