Using Newspapers Obituaries to Forecast Daily Mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 Hot-Spots

Paolo Buonanno, Marcello Puca, Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots, Health Policy, Volume 125, Issue 4, 2021, Pages 535-540, ISSN 0168-8510, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.006.

9 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last revised: 29 Apr 2022

See all articles by Paolo Buonanno

Paolo Buonanno

University of Bergamo - Department of Economics

Marcello Puca

University of Salerno - Dept. of Economics and Statistics; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Date Written: May 30, 2020

Abstract

Real-time tracking of epidemics helps governments and health authorities to make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever available, may be imperfect and published with a substantial delay. We report the results of using newspapers obituaries to forecast the mortality levels observed in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak between February 24, 2020 and April 15, 2020. Mortality levels predicted using obituaries outperforms forecasts based on past mortality according to several performance metrics, making obituaries a potentially powerful alternative source of information to deal with epidemics surveillance

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting; Excess mortality; Big data

Suggested Citation

Buonanno, Paolo and Puca, Marcello, Using Newspapers Obituaries to Forecast Daily Mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 Hot-Spots (May 30, 2020). Paolo Buonanno, Marcello Puca, Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots, Health Policy, Volume 125, Issue 4, 2021, Pages 535-540, ISSN 0168-8510, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.006., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3614057 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3614057

Paolo Buonanno

University of Bergamo - Department of Economics ( email )

Via dei Caniana 2
Bergamo, Bergamo 24127
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.unibg.it/ugov/person/2913

Marcello Puca (Contact Author)

University of Salerno - Dept. of Economics and Statistics ( email )

Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132
Fisciano, SA 84084
Italy

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

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