Is the Sars-CoV-2 Epidemic Losing Its Virulence? Opinions and Looking for Evidence

13 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2020

See all articles by Lluis Oviedo

Lluis Oviedo

Antonianum University

Sara Lumbreras

Comillas Pontifical University

Joaquin Fernandez-Crehuet

University of Malaga

Date Written: May 30, 2020

Abstract

Several experts – mostly in Italy, and later in Spain too – have in the last few weeks shared publicly their opinion that possibly Sars-CoV-2 might be becoming less virulent, at least in those regions and at the present moment. It is important to verify to what extent such expert opinions reflect levels of testable evidence, beyond personal impressions. In this paper we try, first, to report on those opinions; second to review the arguments that could support them; and third to look for empirical evidence through the statistical analysis of official records, trying to specify indexes of severity and their evolution since the pandemic peaked. The available data do not allow for a robust conclusion, but neither exclude that possibility: the epidemic could be weakening; but only time and more research will settle this issue.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, virulence, viral load, mutations, severity, symptoms attenuation

Suggested Citation

Oviedo, Lluis and Lumbreras, Sara and Fernandez-Crehuet, Joaquin, Is the Sars-CoV-2 Epidemic Losing Its Virulence? Opinions and Looking for Evidence (May 30, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3614364 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3614364

Lluis Oviedo (Contact Author)

Antonianum University ( email )

Antonianum University
Via Merulana 124
Roma, 00185
Italy
0670373305 (Phone)
00185 (Fax)

Sara Lumbreras

Comillas Pontifical University ( email )

Alberto Aguilera 21
Madrid, Madrid 28015
Spain

Joaquin Fernandez-Crehuet

University of Malaga ( email )

Malaga, Málaga 29004
Spain

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