Climate and Nomadic Migration in a Nonlinear World: Evidence of the Historical China

21 Pages Posted: 25 Jun 2020

See all articles by Stephane Goutte

Stephane Goutte

University Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, CEMOTEV, UVSQ.

Olivier Damette

BETA-CNRS, Université de Lorraine

Qing Pei

City University of Hong Kong (CityU)

Date Written: May 31, 2020

Abstract

This paper deals with climate change and nomadic migration relationships at a long term and wide geographical scale using a statistical approach in the vein of Bai and Kung (2011). More precisely, it presents a reassessment of these relationships in a nonlinear world using threshold regressions, time varying-copula and nonlinear causality tests. The large amount of historical records in China enables us to re-interpret the link between climate and historical social dynamics (Hsiang et al., 2013) through different regimes of temperatures and precipitations.

Keywords: Climate change, Nomadic migration, Conflicts, Historical China, Threshold Regression, Non linearity, Copula, Cau

JEL Classification: C22, C53, E32, E33, F00, Q00

Suggested Citation

Goutte, Stephane and Damette, Olivier and Pei, Qing, Climate and Nomadic Migration in a Nonlinear World: Evidence of the Historical China (May 31, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3615328 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3615328

Stephane Goutte (Contact Author)

University Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, CEMOTEV, UVSQ. ( email )

47 Boulevard Vauban
Guyancourt, 78280
France

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/mathgoutte/

Olivier Damette

BETA-CNRS, Université de Lorraine ( email )

Lorraine
France

Qing Pei

City University of Hong Kong (CityU) ( email )

Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy
Hong Kong

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