Climate and Nomadic Migration in a Nonlinear World: Evidence of the Historical China
21 Pages Posted: 25 Jun 2020
Date Written: May 31, 2020
This paper deals with climate change and nomadic migration relationships at a long term and wide geographical scale using a statistical approach in the vein of Bai and Kung (2011). More precisely, it presents a reassessment of these relationships in a nonlinear world using threshold regressions, time varying-copula and nonlinear causality tests. The large amount of historical records in China enables us to re-interpret the link between climate and historical social dynamics (Hsiang et al., 2013) through different regimes of temperatures and precipitations.
Keywords: Climate change, Nomadic migration, Conflicts, Historical China, Threshold Regression, Non linearity, Copula, Cau
JEL Classification: C22, C53, E32, E33, F00, Q00
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