The COVID-19 Symmetric Shock, and Its Asymmetric Consequences
20 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2020
Date Written: June 2, 2020
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is opening a period of policy uncertainties upon all us. The upcoming massive recession presents critical economic and financial variables, a steep rise of jobless claims, fixed-asset investment falling by 45% year on year, capital outflows from emerging markets by $ 83 bl. Buffers and shock absorbers are weak in several emerging and developing countries, and preventing the worst case scenario, a lengthy L shape recession, the size of the fiscal injection must be equivalent to the fall in the GDP. What can Caribbean countries do to mitigate the full impact of the pandemic tsunami? Jointly to Multilateral Development Banks, Caribbean governments should require core G20 Members to repurpose climate change investment plans, and, abide by their commitments. Lacking these actions, the COVID-19 shock would develop into a demand-driven slump, opening the door to a long stagnation.
Keywords: Size of the Crisis; Shapes of the Recession; Finance Sources
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation