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COVID-19 Transmission and Forecasting in Kuwait: A Mathematical Modeling Study

22 Pages Posted: 20 Jul 2020

See all articles by Abdullah A. Al-Shammari

Abdullah A. Al-Shammari

Kuwait University - Department of Mathematics

Hamad Ali

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

Barrak Alahmad

Harvard University - Department of Environmental Health

Faisal H. Al-Refaei

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

Salman Al-Sabah

Kuwait University - Department of Surgery

Mohammad H. Jamal

Kuwait University - Department of Surgery

Abdullah Alshukry

Ministry of Health, Kuwait -Department of ENT & Head and Neck Surgery

Qais Al-Duwairi

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

Fahd Al-Mulla

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

More...

Abstract

Developing countries are struggling to control the COVID-19 outbreak, facing shortage in testing supplies and international competition. Many countries with relatively smaller populations like Kuwait have resorted to early lockdowns and aggressive public health interventions. Kuwait had its first imported case on Feb 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important information about the potential epidemic and healthcare burdens as well as assist in evaluating the potential impact of various outbreak control measures. Such control measures are essentially implemented to achieve a sufficient reduction in the effective reproduction number during an outbreak. In this study, we use a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait and forecast the potential burden on the healthcare system. We calibrate the model against daily numbers of detected infection and death cases using a maximum likelihood framework and estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers. Our results indicate that the early control measures implemented in Kuwait had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing Rt below 1. This highlights a need for a systematic investigation of the current public health interventions as well as a scientific surveillance tool in developing countries that is sufficiently sensitive to outbreak temporal dynamics. Meanwhile, the developed model can serve as a public health tool to control the current outbreak. We enable the readers to replicate, adapt, consider alternative assumptions, and extend our model towards more complex generalizable scenarios in other countries.

Funding Statement: None.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Keywords: COVID-19, Mathematical Modeling, SARS-CoV-2, Public Health Intervention

Suggested Citation

Al-Shammari, Abdullah A. and Ali, Hamad and Alahmad, Barrak and Al-Refaei, Faisal H. and Al-Sabah, Salman and Jamal, Mohammad H. and Alshukry, Abdullah and Al-Duwairi, Qais and Al-Mulla, Fahd, COVID-19 Transmission and Forecasting in Kuwait: A Mathematical Modeling Study (5/29/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3618104 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3618104

Abdullah A. Al-Shammari (Contact Author)

Kuwait University - Department of Mathematics ( email )

Safat, 13060
Kuwait
+965 97601686 (Phone)

Hamad Ali

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

Kuwait

Barrak Alahmad

Harvard University - Department of Environmental Health

401 Park Dr
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Faisal H. Al-Refaei

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

Kuwait

Salman Al-Sabah

Kuwait University - Department of Surgery

Safat, 13060
Kuwait

Mohammad H. Jamal

Kuwait University - Department of Surgery

Safat, 13060
Kuwait

Abdullah Alshukry

Ministry of Health, Kuwait -Department of ENT & Head and Neck Surgery

Kuwait

Qais Al-Duwairi

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI)

Kuwait

Fahd Al-Mulla

Dasman Diabetes Institute (DDI) ( email )

Kuwait

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