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Identification of Intrinsic Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemiology at Global and Regional Scales

17 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2020

See all articles by Shiv Narayan Nishad

Shiv Narayan Nishad

CSIR National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies; CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

Prashant Goswami

Institute of Frontier Science and Applications

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Abstract

Background: The relative roles of intrinsic epidemiological dynamics and factors like local immunity and healthcare, in Covid-19 is still not clear. We examine this issue through a study of the epidemiology in different parts of the world.

Methods: To study the intrinsic dynamics, we examine spatial and temporal coherence in daily epidemiology data, primary adopted from WHO. The rate of growth of the disease in a country was measured in terms of epochal linear trend normalised with respect to the respective standard deviation.  Parameters like the day of first occurrence and epidemiological severity were defined accordingly.

Findings:
(a) Covid-19 spread took place in two, somewhat separate, major epochs: January (Asia, Europe, America) and March, (rest of the world), 2020.
(b) The time evolutions of the pandemic in different countries are strongly correlated with that in China, with a time of lag of 52-54 days.
(c) The initial growth of the pandemic, (normalized 15-day epochal linear trend), is very similar across the world.

Interpretation: The strong similarities in the patterns and growth of the epidemiology in the initial phases (about 40 days) across the countries in spite of considerable variations in their immunity as well as healthcare and containment efforts indicate certain intrinsic dynamics of the epidemic, common to all countries. This time scale explains the optimum lag. This aspect needs to be incorporated into efforts in healthcare and modelling related to COVID-19.

Funding: Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India and Institute of Frontier Science and Applications (IFSA), India.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19; corona virus; Epidemiology; Intrinsic Epidemiological dynamics; spatial and temporal coherence

Suggested Citation

Nishad, Shiv Narayan and Goswami, Prashant, Identification of Intrinsic Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemiology at Global and Regional Scales (5/30/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3618307 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3618307

Shiv Narayan Nishad

CSIR National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies

K.S. Krishnan Marg
New Delhi, 110012
India

CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

NAL Belur campus, Wind Tunnel Road
Bangalore, Karnataka 560 037
India

Prashant Goswami (Contact Author)

Institute of Frontier Science and Applications ( email )

Karnataka, Bangalore 560037
India

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