Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals identify content of interest prior to publication. Authors have opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision making and should not be presented to a lay audience without highlighting that they are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed. For more information on this collaboration, see the comments published in The Lancet about the trial period, and our decision to make this a permanent offering, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact email@example.com.
Identification of Intrinsic Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemiology at Global and Regional Scales
17 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2020More...
Background: The relative roles of intrinsic epidemiological dynamics and factors like local immunity and healthcare, in Covid-19 is still not clear. We examine this issue through a study of the epidemiology in different parts of the world.
Methods: To study the intrinsic dynamics, we examine spatial and temporal coherence in daily epidemiology data, primary adopted from WHO. The rate of growth of the disease in a country was measured in terms of epochal linear trend normalised with respect to the respective standard deviation. Parameters like the day of first occurrence and epidemiological severity were defined accordingly.
(a) Covid-19 spread took place in two, somewhat separate, major epochs: January (Asia, Europe, America) and March, (rest of the world), 2020.
(b) The time evolutions of the pandemic in different countries are strongly correlated with that in China, with a time of lag of 52-54 days.
(c) The initial growth of the pandemic, (normalized 15-day epochal linear trend), is very similar across the world.
Interpretation: The strong similarities in the patterns and growth of the epidemiology in the initial phases (about 40 days) across the countries in spite of considerable variations in their immunity as well as healthcare and containment efforts indicate certain intrinsic dynamics of the epidemic, common to all countries. This time scale explains the optimum lag. This aspect needs to be incorporated into efforts in healthcare and modelling related to COVID-19.
Funding: Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India and Institute of Frontier Science and Applications (IFSA), India.
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Keywords: COVID-19; corona virus; Epidemiology; Intrinsic Epidemiological dynamics; spatial and temporal coherence
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation