Impact of Governmental Interventions on Epidemic Progression and Workplace Activity during the COVID-19 Outbreak

66 Pages Posted: 6 Aug 2020 Last revised: 10 Aug 2020

See all articles by Sumit Kumar Ram

Sumit Kumar Ram

Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich

Didier Sornette

ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology

Date Written: June 3, 2020

Abstract

In the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a state of paralysis. During this period, humanity has seen by far the largest organized travel restrictions and unprecedented efforts and global coordination to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using large-scale human mobility and fine-grained epidemic incidence data, we develop a framework to understand and quantify the effectiveness of the interventions implemented by various countries to control epidemic growth. Our analysis reveals the importance of timing and implementation of strategic policy in controlling the epidemic. Through our analysis, we also unearth significant spatial diffusion of the epidemic before and during the lock-down measures in several countries, casting doubt on the effectiveness or on the implementation quality of the proposed Governmental policies.

Note: Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no competing interests.

Funding: ETH Zurich

Keywords: COVID-19, Effective reproduction number, Governmental interventions, Human mobility

Suggested Citation

Ram, Sumit Kumar and Sornette, Didier, Impact of Governmental Interventions on Epidemic Progression and Workplace Activity during the COVID-19 Outbreak (June 3, 2020). Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 20-58, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3619202 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3619202

Sumit Kumar Ram (Contact Author)

Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich ( email )

Zürichbergstrasse 18
8092 Zurich, Zurich CH-1015
Switzerland

Didier Sornette

ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC) ( email )

Scheuchzerstrasse 7
Zurich, ZURICH CH-8092
Switzerland
41446328917 (Phone)
41446321914 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.er.ethz.ch/

Swiss Finance Institute

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Southern University of Science and Technology

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Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055
China

Tokyo Institute of Technology

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Tokyo 152-8550, 52-8552
Japan

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