Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19

41 Pages Posted: 5 Jun 2020

See all articles by Nikolaos Askitas

Nikolaos Askitas

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Konstantinos Tatsiramos

University of Luxembourg; Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

Bertrand Verheyden

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. Taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions, we remove concurrent policy bias from the effect of each policy of interest, and we establish that policies curb the epidemic by changing population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiologically relevant considerations. We are thus able to shed light on the mechanisms through which confinement measures contribute to "flattening the curve".

Keywords: COVID-19, 2019 novel coronavirus, pandemic, mobility, confinement measures, lockdown, quarantine, transmission, behaviour, incidence, compliance, non-pharmaceutical interventions, NPI, basic reproduction number, R0, SIR model

JEL Classification: I120, I180, C230

Suggested Citation

Askitas, Nikolaos and Tatsiramos, Konstantinos and Verheyden, Bertrand, Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8338, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3619687 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3619687

Nikolaos Askitas (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Konstantinos Tatsiramos

University of Luxembourg ( email )

L-1511 Luxembourg
Luxembourg

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte des Sciences
Campus Belval – Maison des Sciences Humaines
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

Bertrand Verheyden

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte des Sciences
Campus Belval – Maison des Sciences Humaines
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

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