How Effective are Social Distancing Policies? Evidence on the Fight Against COVID-19 from Germany
39 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2020
Date Written: June 1, 2020
To fight the spread of COVID-19, many countries implemented unprecedented social distancing policies. This is the first paper that uses an event-study approach to examine the effects of the German social distancing policies on (a) individual behavior and (b) the spread of the epidemic. Combining administrative health data and cell phone data, we find that the policies, first, heavily reduced citizens’ mobility and, second, strongly contained the epidemic. In comparison to a benchmark without social distancing, within three weeks, the policies avoided 84% of the potential COVID-19 cases (point estimate: 499.3K) and 66% of the potential fatalities (5.4K).
Note: Funding: Ulrich Glogowsky received financial support by the CRC TRR 190, Rationality and Competition. Emanuel Hansen received financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy – EXC2126/1 – 390838866.
Declaration of Interest: None to declare
Keywords: COVID-19, corona, social distancing, social distancing policies, mobility behavior, pandemic, epidemic
JEL Classification: I18, H12, I12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation