Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence From Bolivia

47 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2020

See all articles by Nicolás Idrobo

Nicolás Idrobo

University of Pennsylvania, School of Arts & Sciences, Department of Political Science, Students

Dorothy Kronick

University of Pennsylvania

Francisco Rodríguez

Tulane University

Date Written: June 7, 2020

Abstract

Surprising trends in late-counted votes can spark conflict. In Bolivia, electoral observers recently sounded alarms about trends in late-counted votes — with dramatic political consequences. We revisit the quantitative evidence, finding that (a) an apparent jump in the incumbent’s vote share was actually an artifact of the analysts’ error; (b) analysis of within-precinct variation mistakenly ignored a strong secular trend; and (c) nearly identical patterns appear in data from the previous election, which was not contested. In short, we examine the patterns that the observers deemed “inexplicable,” finding that we can explain them without invoking fraud.

Suggested Citation

Idrobo, Nicolás and Kronick, Dorothy and Rodríguez, Francisco, Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence From Bolivia (June 7, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3621475

Nicolás Idrobo

University of Pennsylvania, School of Arts & Sciences, Department of Political Science, Students ( email )

Stiteler Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/idrobo/home

Dorothy Kronick (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Francisco Rodríguez

Tulane University ( email )

1440 Canal St.
NEW ORLEANS, LA 70112

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