The Economic Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic for Leicester

Abstract

We analyse the likely effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the Leicester economy and make some recommendations for policy making at a local level. The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented shock to the economy and is likely to have profound implications for Leicester. We estimate that only around a third to a half of employment in the city can continue as normal during lockdown conditions. And around a third of employment is in highly vulnerable sectors. There will inevitably be, therefore, a large rise in unemployment in the city, leading to higher levels of poverty. The effect is likely to be particularly pronounced in the young who are disproportionally employed in vulnerable sectors. Our policy recommendations focus on supporting the economy through inclusive growth. At a time of high unemployment, when much of the focus will be on getting people into work, it is perhaps more important than ever to remind ourselves that any job is not necessarily better than no job.

Keywords: Coronavirus, unemployment, Leicester, East Midlands, skills

JEL Classification: J01, R11