Effect of Universal TB Vaccination and Other Policy-Relevant Factors on the Probability of Patient Death from COVID-19

8 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2020

See all articles by Amos Golan

Amos Golan

American University - Department of Economics; Santa Fe Institute; University of Oxford - Pembroke College, Oxford

Tinatin Mumladze

American University

Danielle Wilson

Rock Valley College; American University - Department of Economics

Elissa Cohen

American University

Troy McGuinness

American University

William Mooney

American University - Department of Economics

Jisung Moon

World Bank

Date Written: June 2, 2020

Abstract

The possibility of reoccurring waves of the novel coronavirus that triggered the 2020 pandemic makes it critical to identify underlying policy-relevant factors that could be leveraged to decrease future COVID-19 death rates. We examined variation in a number of underlying, policy-relevant, country-level factors and COVID-19 death rates across countries. We found three such factors that significantly impact the survival probability of patients infected with COVID-19. In order of impact, these are universal TB (BCG) vaccination, air pollution deaths and a health-related expenditure. We quantify each probability change by age and sex. To deal with small sample size and high correlations, we use an information-theoretic inferential method that also allows us to introduce priors constructed from independent SARS data.

Note: Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no competing interests.

Funding: None to declare

Ethical Approval: None, data was publicly available

Keywords: BCG vaccine, coronavirus, COVID-19, health expenditure, inference, information theory, policy, pollution level

JEL Classification: C13, C14, C18, C25, C40, I10, I18

Suggested Citation

Golan, Amos and Mumladze, Tinatin and Wilson, Danielle and Cohen, Elissa and McGuinness, Troy and Mooney, William and Moon, Jisung, Effect of Universal TB Vaccination and Other Policy-Relevant Factors on the Probability of Patient Death from COVID-19 (June 2, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3623085 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3623085

Amos Golan (Contact Author)

American University - Department of Economics ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20016-8029
United States

Santa Fe Institute ( email )

1399 Hyde Park Road
Santa Fe, NM 87501
United States

University of Oxford - Pembroke College, Oxford ( email )

OX1 1DW
Oxford
United Kingdom

Tinatin Mumladze

American University ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20016
United States

Danielle Wilson

Rock Valley College ( email )

3301 North Mulford Road
Rockford, IL 61114
United States

American University - Department of Economics ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20016
United States

Elissa Cohen

American University ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20016
United States

Troy McGuinness

American University ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20016
United States

William Mooney

American University - Department of Economics ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20016-8029
United States

Jisung Moon

World Bank

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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