Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Abstract

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, 2008-2009, Demand, Interest rate increases, Housing prices, Financial crises, House Prices, Growth at Risk, Panel Quantile Regression, Early Warning Models, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy, WP, emerge market economy, quantile, house price, financial condition, policy measure

JEL Classification: C12, E17, E37, R31, E01, G21, E52, E31, G01