Untimely Reopening? Change in the Number of New COVID-19 Cases after Reopening in One Brazilian State

23 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2020 Last revised: 3 Sep 2020

See all articles by Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini

Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini

University of São Paulo (USP) - School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH)

Date Written: June 14, 2020

Abstract

The novel coronavirus pandemic poses new challenges for policy makers. These include potential lockdown or reopening dates, stimulation/anti-crisis packages for families and companies, apart from managing the public health care system and medical supplies. In particular, in Brazil there have been no coordinated social distancing actions. At the time when some states were still in complete lockdown, others had already started going back to ``business as usual". This paper quantifies the effects of the reopening in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina on the incidence of daily COVID-19 cases. Other states are used as donor pool in a synthetic control analysis. The empirical analysis is linked to an epidemiological SIR model. The results show that at least 9.5% of the new infections between April 23rd and May 14th can be attributed to the reopening.

Note: Funding: The research has not received any funding.

Conflict of Interest: No conflict of interest to declare.

Keywords: coronavirus, social distancing, synthetic control

JEL Classification: H75, I18

Suggested Citation

Sobiech Pellegrini, Izabela, Untimely Reopening? Change in the Number of New COVID-19 Cases after Reopening in One Brazilian State (June 14, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3623930 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3623930

Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini (Contact Author)

University of São Paulo (USP) - School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH) ( email )

Av. Arlindo Bettio, 1000
Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo 03828000
Brazil

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/izasobiech/

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