Untimely Reopening? Change in the Number of New COVID-19 Cases after Reopening in One Brazilian State
23 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2020 Last revised: 3 Sep 2020
Date Written: June 14, 2020
The novel coronavirus pandemic poses new challenges for policy makers. These include potential lockdown or reopening dates, stimulation/anti-crisis packages for families and companies, apart from managing the public health care system and medical supplies. In particular, in Brazil there have been no coordinated social distancing actions. At the time when some states were still in complete lockdown, others had already started going back to ``business as usual". This paper quantifies the effects of the reopening in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina on the incidence of daily COVID-19 cases. Other states are used as donor pool in a synthetic control analysis. The empirical analysis is linked to an epidemiological SIR model. The results show that at least 9.5% of the new infections between April 23rd and May 14th can be attributed to the reopening.
Note: Funding: The research has not received any funding.
Conflict of Interest: No conflict of interest to declare.
Keywords: coronavirus, social distancing, synthetic control
JEL Classification: H75, I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation