Reducing Commodity-Driven Tropical Deforestation: Political Feasibility and ‘Theories of Change’ for EU Policy Options

Abstract

Consumer countries play an important role in driving tropical deforestation through imports of forest risk commodities (FRCs), but their role in reducing deforestation has received limited scholarly attention. Drawing on suggestions from grey literature and a European Commission (EC) public consultation, we identify 1,141 policy proposals for the EU and other consumer countries to address tropical deforestation, which we summarize into 86 unique policy options. Two-third of these are informational and supportive policies, while regulatory and especially market-based options are less-often proposed. We assess the political feasibility and map the ‘theory of change’ (TOC) through which the policies address tropical deforestation. Several feasible options exist, though most of these rely on less coercive — informational and cooperative — policy instruments. Most policy proposals lack an explicit and proven TOC, reducing their potential impact on reducing deforestation. Due diligence and multi-stakeholder fora stand out as policies that are feasible, yet rest on convincing TOCs. To increase the feasibility and impact of consumer-country deforestation policy options, we propose three principles:

i) Build policies on a clear theory of change,

ii) apply policy packaging and sequencing, and

iii) work with stakeholders in key supply-chains and regions, broadening scope over time.

Keywords: Deforestation, Conservation Policy, European Union, Political Feasibility, Supply Chains, Land Use Change, Forest Risk Commodities, Demand-Side Policy, Sustainable Development

JEL Classification: Q15, Q17, Q18, Q23, Q24, Q27, Q28, Q56