Effective Containment Explains the Velocity of COVID-19 Spread
12 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2020
Date Written: June 12, 2020
Understanding the mechanisms underlying the global spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) is key to addressing the pandemic. Herein, we use a global velocity model to examine the effectiveness of containment measures on the rate of COVID-19 spread at spatial scales. Velocity models were parameterised to locate COVID-19 analogues within a minimum exposure distance. We found that COVID-19 spread 193 analogue locations at 3.03km per day (range: .5 – 7.81km per day). We applied conventional time-series methods to study the effectiveness of shelter-in-place virus containment strategy as represented by device exposure and state-wise emergency declaration metrics, on velocity of virus spread. The best model comprised of high device exposure and state-wise emergency rank, explaining 44% of the variation in velocity of COVID-19. Our findings elucidate the importance of governments’ response time and individual-level compliance in managing pathogens during epidemics.
Note: Funding: None to declare
Declaration of Interest: None to declare
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus disease, speed of transmission, exposure distance, shelter-in-place, containment of pathogens
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