Effective Containment Explains the Velocity of COVID-19 Spread

12 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2020

See all articles by Ernest Frimpong Asamoah

Ernest Frimpong Asamoah

Macquarie University - Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences

Emmanuella Kwaku

Beijing Normal University (BNU)

Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie

University of Nordland - Nord University Business School

Joseph Maina

Macquarie University

Date Written: June 12, 2020

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the global spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) is key to addressing the pandemic. Herein, we use a global velocity model to examine the effectiveness of containment measures on the rate of COVID-19 spread at spatial scales. Velocity models were parameterised to locate COVID-19 analogues within a minimum exposure distance. We found that COVID-19 spread 193 analogue locations at 3.03km per day (range: .5 – 7.81km per day). We applied conventional time-series methods to study the effectiveness of shelter-in-place virus containment strategy as represented by device exposure and state-wise emergency declaration metrics, on velocity of virus spread. The best model comprised of high device exposure and state-wise emergency rank, explaining 44% of the variation in velocity of COVID-19. Our findings elucidate the importance of governments’ response time and individual-level compliance in managing pathogens during epidemics.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus disease, speed of transmission, exposure distance, shelter-in-place, containment of pathogens

Suggested Citation

Asamoah, Ernest Frimpong and Kwaku, Emmanuella Anyeki and Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu and Maina, Joseph, Effective Containment Explains the Velocity of COVID-19 Spread (June 12, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3625341 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3625341

Ernest Frimpong Asamoah (Contact Author)

Macquarie University - Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences ( email )

Sydney
Australia

Emmanuella Anyeki Kwaku

Beijing Normal University (BNU) ( email )

19 Xinjiekou Outer St
Haidian District
Beijing, Guangdong 100875
China

Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie

University of Nordland - Nord University Business School ( email )

Bodø, 8049
Norway

Joseph Maina

Macquarie University ( email )

North Ryde
Sydney, New South Wales 2109
Australia

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