Download This PaperLearning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial Sir Model with Behavioral Responses
42 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2020 Last revised: 30 Jul 2020
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Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial Sir Model with Behavioral Responses
Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-Sir Model with Behavioral Responses
Date Written: July 30, 2020
Abstract
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographical characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several invariance properties of the SIR model with respect to these variables do not hold when agents are placed in a (two dimensional) geographical space. Indeed, local herd immunity plays a fundamental role in changing the dynamics of the infection. We also show that geographical factors affect how behavioral responses affect the epidemics. We derive relevant implications for the estimation of epidemiological models with panel data from several geographical units.
Note: Funding: None to declare
Declaration of Interest: None to declare
Keywords: COVID-19, Spatial-SIR, SIR, Behavioral responses, Infection dynamics
JEL Classification: I1, C63, C52
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation