The Effects of Multiple Delayed National Regulatory Actions on the Number of COVID-19 Infections in the European Union and the United Kingdom

Abstract

There is a noticeable difference in the amount of time it took European Union (EU) member states and the United Kingdom (UK) to enact nationwide stay-at-home orders and mandatory face mask provisions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some EU member states enacted nationwide stay-at-home orders and mandatory face mask provisions shortly after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 infection within their respective jurisdiction. In contrast, other EU member states and the UK took much longer to initiate similar regulatory measures. This study’s findings indicate that there is a statistically significant difference in the number of COVID-19 infections between these two groups of countries, with a higher number of COVID-19 infections in the group of countries that took longer to enact nationwide stay-at-home orders and mandatory face mask provisions. This study's findings also show a moderate positive correlation between the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections and the lag time between the first confirmed COVID-19 infections and the issuance of nationwide stay-at-home orders and mandatory face mask provisions, respectively. The results also show a very strong positive correlation between the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections and the number of COVID-19 infection tests. A Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed, in place of Poisson regression, due to a failure to fit. The regression results indicate that confirmed COVID-19 infections increased by 0.0454 infections each test performed, decreased by -60,017 because of mandatory face mask provisions, and increased by 1,141 each day of lag time between the first confirmed COVID-19 infections and the issuance of mandatory nationwide face mask provisions.

Keywords: COVID-19, stay-at-home order, protective face masks, COVID-19 testing, EU, UK, European Union, United Kingdom