Open with Care: Minimising COVID-19 Superspreading Settings in Australia

Abstract

After effectively suppressing the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia is progressively opening a range of public settings. The first wave of the pandemic was mostly associated with imported cases. The next phase may be epidemiologically similar to the transmission dynamic in South Korea and Hong Kong which has been characterised by superspreading events in high risk settings. Most cases of COVID-19 do not infect others. 80% of the onward transmission of the pandemic may arise from less than 20% of cases and may be concentrated in high risk settings. High risk settings are defined by having been associated with superspreading events in the current COVID-19 pandemic or in past respiratory disease outbreaks. Five high-risk settings will be used as case studies to explore factors associated with transmission risk, specifically night club and karaoke rooms, gymnasiums, ski resorts, cruise ships, churches and religious gatherings. Some settings will be difficult to open until effective herd immunity is achieved through vaccination or natural infection. High risk venue openings should be managed through robust risk benefit analysis and enhanced surveillance for superspreading events and settings.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS CoV-2, pandemic, transmission, superspreading, surveillance, Australia