Open with Care: Minimising COVID-19 Superspreading Settings in Australia

12 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2020

See all articles by Craig Dalton

Craig Dalton

School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle

Anthea Katelaris

Western Sydney Public Health Unit

Nick Wilson

Prince of Wales Hospital

Date Written: June 12, 2020

Abstract

After effectively suppressing the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia is progressively opening a range of public settings. The first wave of the pandemic was mostly associated with imported cases. The next phase may be epidemiologically similar to the transmission dynamic in South Korea and Hong Kong which has been characterised by superspreading events in high risk settings. Most cases of COVID-19 do not infect others. 80% of the onward transmission of the pandemic may arise from less than 20% of cases and may be concentrated in high risk settings. High risk settings are defined by having been associated with superspreading events in the current COVID-19 pandemic or in past respiratory disease outbreaks. Five high-risk settings will be used as case studies to explore factors associated with transmission risk, specifically night club and karaoke rooms, gymnasiums, ski resorts, cruise ships, churches and religious gatherings. Some settings will be difficult to open until effective herd immunity is achieved through vaccination or natural infection. High risk venue openings should be managed through robust risk benefit analysis and enhanced surveillance for superspreading events and settings.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS CoV-2, pandemic, transmission, superspreading, surveillance, Australia

Suggested Citation

Dalton, Craig and Katelaris, Anthea and Wilson, Nick, Open with Care: Minimising COVID-19 Superspreading Settings in Australia (June 12, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3625655 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3625655

Craig Dalton (Contact Author)

School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle ( email )

Newcastle
Australia

Anthea Katelaris

Western Sydney Public Health Unit ( email )

New South Wales
Australia

Nick Wilson

Prince of Wales Hospital ( email )

Randwick
Sydney
Australia

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