Streaks in Daily Returns
58 Pages Posted: 8 Jul 2020
Date Written: June 15, 2020
A simple model of return extrapolation suggests that streaks in returns, which we define as n-day consecutive over-/under-performance relative to the market, predict future returns. We test this prediction using daily U.S. data and find strong empirical support. Buying stocks with negative streaks and selling stocks with positive streaks yields annualized Sharpe ratios around 2. We replicate the results in international markets and are able to increase the Sharpe ratio to above 3 by diversifying across regions. We argue that liquidity is unlikely to explain the results as streak portfolio returns based on mid-quote-prices are strongest among stocks with the lowest bid-ask spreads.
Keywords: streaks, return extrapolation, investor behavior
JEL Classification: G12,G4
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