Peaks and Trends in UK Coronavirus Cases
9 Pages Posted: 17 Jun 2020
Date Written: April 19, 2020
Fitting a local linear trend model with a Kalman smoother to smooth out noise inherent in the data suggests that the UK has passed the peak of new coronavirus cases and daily deaths, while England has passed peak hospital admissions. New cases appear to be flatlining, while daily deaths and England hospital admissions are decreasing. I estimate peak new UK cases came around 8 April, peak England hospital admissions around 13 April and peak UK daily deaths around 11 April. Scotland hospital admissions have plateaued at their peak, while Wales hospital admissions are yet to reach their peak.
Note: Funding: None.
Conflict of Interest: None.
Keywords: coronavirus, COVID, COVID19, Kalman filter
JEL Classification: I18, C22, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation