Peaks and Trends in UK Coronavirus Cases

9 Pages Posted: 17 Jun 2020

See all articles by Michael Ashby

Michael Ashby

Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge; Downing College, Cambridge

Date Written: April 19, 2020


Fitting a local linear trend model with a Kalman smoother to smooth out noise inherent in the data suggests that the UK has passed the peak of new coronavirus cases and daily deaths, while England has passed peak hospital admissions. New cases appear to be flatlining, while daily deaths and England hospital admissions are decreasing. I estimate peak new UK cases came around 8 April, peak England hospital admissions around 13 April and peak UK daily deaths around 11 April. Scotland hospital admissions have plateaued at their peak, while Wales hospital admissions are yet to reach their peak.

Note: Funding: None.

Conflict of Interest: None.

Keywords: coronavirus, COVID, COVID19, Kalman filter

JEL Classification: I18, C22, C53

Suggested Citation

Ashby, Michael, Peaks and Trends in UK Coronavirus Cases (April 19, 2020). Available at SSRN: or

Michael Ashby (Contact Author)

Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge ( email )

Sidgwick Avenue
Cambridge, CB3 9DD
United Kingdom

Downing College, Cambridge ( email )

Regent St
Cambridge, CB2 1DQ
United Kingdom

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