Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

56 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2020

See all articles by Ralph S. J. Koijen

Ralph S. J. Koijen

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Robert Richmond

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance

Motohiro Yogo

Princeton University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2020

Abstract

Much work in finance is devoted to identifying characteristics of firms, such as measures of fundamentals and beliefs, that explain differences in asset prices and expected returns. We develop a framework to quantitatively trace the connection between valuations, expected returns, and characteristics back to institutional investors and households. We use it to analyze\ (i) what information is important to investors in forming their demand beyond prices and (ii) what is the relative importance of different investors -- differentiated by type, size, and active share -- in the price formation process. We first show that a small set of characteristics explains the majority of variation in a panel of firm-level valuation ratios across countries. We then estimate an asset demand system using investor-level holdings data, allowing for flexible substitution patterns within and across countries. We find that hedge funds and small, active investment advisors are most influential per dollar of assets under management, while long-term investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies are least influential. In terms of pricing characteristics, small, active investment advisors are most important for the pricing of payout policy, cash flows, and the fraction of sales sold abroad. Large, passive investment advisors are most influential in pricing the Lerner index, a measure of markups, and hedge funds for the CAPM beta.

JEL Classification: G1

Suggested Citation

Koijen, Ralph S. J. and Richmond, Robert and Yogo, Motohiro, Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns? (June 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14890, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3628212

Ralph S. J. Koijen (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ralph.koijen/

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
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Robert Richmond

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

Motohiro Yogo

Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )

Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building
Princeton, NJ 08544
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/motohiroyogo/

National Bureau of Economic Research

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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