Low Unemployment, or Just Undercounted Unemployment? A Note on America's "Full Employment" in 2019

Abstract

Since at least 2016, and certainly in 2019, it was common for economists to write of the U.S. economy being at "full employment." This paper undertakes a critical examination of the data relevant to the question as it stood in early 2019, considering the multiplicity of employment measures; labor force participation in selected demographics (particularly younger males and women); and less direct indicators of unemployment (notably trends with regard to capacity utilization, wages and credentialing); as at the very least suggesting a more complex, and less sanguine, picture.

Keywords: U.S. Economy, the Great Recession, post-2008 Economic Recovery, Unemployment, Underemployment, Full Employment, Capacity Utilization, Credentialing Crisis, Neoliberalism