COVID-19 with Uncertain Phases: Estimation Issues with An Illustration for Argentina

36 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2020

See all articles by Hildegart Ahumada

Hildegart Ahumada

Universidad Torcuato Di Tella - School of Government

Santos Espina

FIEL; UCEMA

Fernando H. Navajas

Fundacion de Investigaciones Economicas Latinoamericanas (FIEL); Universidad de Buenos Aires; Universidad Nacional de La Plata

Date Written: June 20, 2020

Abstract

We use an approach to assess COVID-19 performance that starts from what we consider is the most likely set of hypotheses about the uncertain evolution of the pandemic, that envisage a sequence of different cycles with unknown duration and magnitude over 18-24 months. This pattern implies a research strategy where short-term time series forecasting of the evolution of observed cases and deaths play a central role in both detecting transitions from phase to phase of infections and the estimation of necessarily changing structural parameters and indicators of a SIRD model. We illustrate our approach with Buenos Aires City performance, which represents a significant share of the Argentine case with an early introduction of a lockdown followed by a second wave latter on. This approach can be extended to include measures of the intensity and compliance of lockdowns, as well as the heterogeneity across areas. We find that mobility (as a proxy for the effectiveness of the lockdown) has an impact on observed cases in Buenos Aires City with a lag of 8 days and deaths relate with new cases registered 16 to 19 days before. Mobility has a clear impact on the growth rate of cases and by extension deaths. Our approach and results have implications for policy dialogue issues.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, Forecasting, SIRD, Lockdown, Mobility

JEL Classification: C5, I1

Suggested Citation

Ahumada, Hildegart and Espina, Santos and Navajas, Fernando, COVID-19 with Uncertain Phases: Estimation Issues with An Illustration for Argentina (June 20, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3633500 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3633500

Hildegart Ahumada

Universidad Torcuato Di Tella - School of Government ( email )

C1428ATG Buenos Aires
Argentina

Santos Espina

FIEL ( email )

A. Cordoba 637, 4 Piso
1054 Buenos Aires
United States

UCEMA ( email )

Córdoba 374
Buenos Aires, 1044
Argentina

Fernando Navajas (Contact Author)

Fundacion de Investigaciones Economicas Latinoamericanas (FIEL) ( email )

A. Cordoba 637, 4 Piso
1054 Buenos Aires
Argentina
54 11 43141990 (Phone)
54 11 43148648 (Fax)

Universidad de Buenos Aires ( email )

Av. Córdoba 2122
Buenos Aires, C1120AAQ
Argentina

Universidad Nacional de La Plata

7 Nº 776
Buenos Aires, BA 1900
Argentina

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