Behavioral Dynamics of COVID-19: Estimating Under-Reporting, Multiple Waves, and Adherence Fatigue Across 92 Nations

Rahmandad, H., Lim, TY., Sterman, J., Behavioral Dynamics of COVID-19: Estimating Under-Reporting, Multiple Waves, and Adherence Fatigue Across 92 Nations, System Dynamics Review, Forthcoming

95 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2020 Last revised: 22 Aug 2021

See all articles by Hazhir Rahmandad

Hazhir Rahmandad

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

TY Lim

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Students

John Sterman

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Date Written: February 17, 2021

Abstract

Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations with reliable testing data. Cumulative cases and deaths through 22 December 2020 are estimated to be 7.03 and 1.44 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.51% which has been declining over time. Absent adherence fatigue cumulative cases would have been 47% lower. Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14%, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date. Variations in responsiveness to risk explain two orders of magnitude difference in per-capita deaths despite reproduction numbers fluctuating ~ 1 across nations. A public online simulator facilitates scenario analysis over the coming months.

Note: Funding: No funding was used to conduct this study.

Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, Infection, Simulation, Asymptomatic, Infection Fatality Rate, Testing

JEL Classification: I1

Suggested Citation

Rahmandad, Hazhir and Lim, Tse Yang and Sterman, John, Behavioral Dynamics of COVID-19: Estimating Under-Reporting, Multiple Waves, and Adherence Fatigue Across 92 Nations (February 17, 2021). Rahmandad, H., Lim, TY., Sterman, J., Behavioral Dynamics of COVID-19: Estimating Under-Reporting, Multiple Waves, and Adherence Fatigue Across 92 Nations, System Dynamics Review, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635047 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3635047

Hazhir Rahmandad (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

100 Main st.
E62-442
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

Tse Yang Lim

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Students ( email )

Cambridge, MA 02139
United States

John Sterman

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

E62-436
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States
617-253-1951 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/

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